Strategy Center

Understand a strategy before you follow it.

Every strategy spells out its trade structure, where the returns come from, which markets it fits, its track record and its main risks. See how it works before you look at the returns.

Low–medium risk

Same-Market Pair

Buy YES and NO of the same event simultaneously.

Polymarket

How it worksWhen the combined cost of YES and NO drops below $1, try to buy both legs.

Where returns come fromOne side always pays $1 at settlement — you keep the gap between total cost and $1.

Fits: PolymarketMain risk: legs not both filled

2 active signalsHow it works →

Medium risk

Cross-Venue Spread

Compare prices for the same event across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Multi-venue

How it worksBuy the cheap YES on one venue and the cheap NO on the other; only for events with strictly identical resolution rules.

Where returns come fromTransient price differences between two exchanges quoting the same event.

Fits: Kalshi + PolymarketMain risk: rule / execution mismatch

2,416 followersHow it works →

Medium risk

Champion & Outcome Basket

Buy a set of outcomes where exactly one must win.

Sports · Politics

How it worksBuy a mutually exclusive and exhaustive set of outcomes whose combined cost is below $1.

Where returns come fromExactly one outcome must settle at $1.

Fits: championships, elections, awardsMain risk: missing outcomes

5 active signalsHow it works →

Medium risk

Logic Implication

Exploit 'if A happens, B must happen' relationships.

Logic

How it worksIf A necessarily implies B but A trades at a higher probability than B, buy B YES + A NO.

Where returns come fromThe market misprices logical constraints between events.

Fits: policy, macro, tournament pathsMain risk: ambiguous rule wording

927 followersHow it works →

Medium–high risk

Tournament Path

Compare single-game, advance, final and title probabilities.

Sports

How it worksBuild relative-value combos across upstream and downstream tournament markets.

Where returns come fromProbability curves at different horizons fall out of sync.

Fits: playoffs, tournamentsMain risk: non-linear schedule/injury effects

3,091 followersHow it works →

High risk

Correlated Events

Trade two events that usually move together.

Relative Value

How it worksBuy the underpriced event while buying NO on (or selling) the overpriced correlated one.

Where returns come fromThe market misjudges the conditional-probability link between two events.

Fits: macro, policy, sportsMain risk: correlation breakdown

1,046 followersHow it works →

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Three questions before following any strategy

What does it do?The concrete buy/sell structure — not an abstract name.

Why might it work?Does the edge come from price, logic, liquidity or a model?

What's the biggest risk?Rules, execution, liquidity, correlation or model risk.

Risk isn't only directional

Structural strategies can still suffer unfilled legs, mismatched resolution rules or funding delays. The platform labels directional, rule, execution, model and inventory risk separately.

Rule riskExecution riskLiquidity riskModel risk