Strategy Guide

Champion & Outcome Basket

Structural · Sports / Politics · Medium risk

What does it do?

Buy a set of theoretically mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes — for example, all eligible candidates in a championship, election or award.

Why might it work?

If exactly one outcome must pay $1 at the end but the combined buy cost of all outcomes is below $1, the difference is a structural opportunity.

Simplified example

Candidate A24¢

Candidate B31¢

All other eligible38¢

Combo cost93¢

Strategy structure

BuyYES of multiple exclusive outcomes

Triggertotal cost of all outcomes + costs < $1

Fitschampionships, elections, awards

Key checkoutcomes must be complete and exclusive

Main risks

Rule riskExecution riskMarket suspension

You must confirm there is no missing 'other outcome', duplicated candidate, or substitution/cancellation rule — otherwise the basket fails to cover every settlement path.

Active signals

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? + Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? + Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?+4.0¢

Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? + Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?+1.0¢

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? + Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election? + Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?+1.0¢

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? + Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? + Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? + Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? + Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?+1.0¢

Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? + Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? + Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? + Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? + Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? + Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?+1.0¢

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Model opinions, historical returns and community scores are no guarantee of results. Before trading, consider fees, liquidity, resolution rules, jurisdiction and your own risk tolerance.