Strategy Guide

Model-Driven Signals

Directional · Kalshi + Polymarket · High risk

What does it do?

Turn news, odds, injuries, polls, on-chain data or order flow into model fair probabilities, and trade the gap between model and market.

Why might it work?

If the model is better than consensus on data quality, speed or structure, a tradeable gap between fair value and the book can persist.

Simplified example

Market probability58¢

Model fair value64¢

Headline edge+6¢

In practicenet of fees and slippage

Strategy structure

Inputsnews / odds / polls / order flow

Modelproduces fair probability

Tradebuy YES, buy NO or hedge per edge

Best venueKalshi + Polymarket

Main risks

Model riskData latencyOverfitting

Backtests don't guarantee the future. Data delays, overfitting, model drift and market-structure changes can erase the alpha quickly.

Active signals

No open signals — the engine rescans every 60 seconds and surfaces opportunities automatically.

Model opinions, historical returns and community scores are no guarantee of results. Before trading, consider fees, liquidity, resolution rules, jurisdiction and your own risk tolerance.