Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Macro · Polymarket · 4620900 · updated 10:26:10

Market price

YES

80¢ 0.0¢

20¢

Total volume$883K

24h volume$6K

Settles in—

Snapshots collected0

Cross-venue comparison

auto-matched

KalshiWill the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?YES 79¢ (77¢/79¢)

pending review confidence 87.5 · auto: event_sim=75 best_market_sim=100 close_diff=22d

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Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Same-market pair Cross-venue spread

Data comes from public exchange feeds and may be delayed or incomplete; nothing here is investment advice. Cross-venue comparisons rely on automated matching (hard = highly similar titles and settlement times; soft requires manual rule verification). Before trading, consider fees, liquidity, resolution rules, jurisdiction and your own risk tolerance.